I have moved my blog back to my old site. You can find it at http://loadedgunchasing.com/blog1/ or just google loaded gun chasing blog and my website and blog will come up

Well it looks like I might get my first chase in tomorrow. I have done very little forecasting, but I haven't been impressed with what I've seen so far. The setup is going to be close to home though and storms have a way of doing weird things near surface lows so I'll probably give it a try and chase.
I think I might be moving my blog location back to my website and shutting this one down. I have to go mess with it and I'll find out then. I'll post a forecast tonight or in the morning.

Well I'm not chasing tomorrow, but I would if LCL heights were a little lower over northwest Kansas and I was sure the cap would break. They very well may get a tornado or two tomorrow. The wind shear is really good. As mentioned before LCL heights are a bit high and the cap may hold until after dark, which is usually a problem with the day before the day chases. The best area for tornadoes will be over northwest Kansas. I would target the dryline right along I70 and get on any storm firing in that area.

Thursday looks like a good severe weather outbreak, but I am questioning the tornado potential. It is rare to get a good tornado on days when there is poor directional shear and that will be the case on Thursday. The speed shear is pretty good and this combined with CAPE around 1000J/kg will create an environment favorable for severe storms. The tornado potential will be seriously inhibited by veering low level winds. Surface winds are slightly more backed over parts of Oklahoma and as a result it will have the best tornado potential on Thursday. I would target any storm firing just a little bit north of Oklahoma City. I think any storm tracking over the area northeast of OKC has the best shot of putting down a tornado. LCL heights will be pretty low, so I think there is a reasonable chance of a couple tornadoes. I don't think it will be anything major, but anything can happen when you get these days with strong speed shear and poor directional shear. Occasionally they do produce decent tornadoes so I will probably be out chasing. I'm kind of repeating myself here, but again I don't think it is that good of a tornado day. My best guess is you'll get a couple tornado warned storms that may be able to produce a couple weak tornadoes and the best area for this will be the northeast quadrant of Oklahoma.

The 00Z run of the GFS doesn't look so pretty. The speed shear still looks really good, but the directional shear isn't so great. 850mb winds are veering real bad which is damning for tornado potential (although I still think you'd get some tornadoes with this setup) and with strong wind speeds (and poor directional shear) storm motions would be very fast. Hopefully the gfs will trend more back towards the 12Z where the trough isn't so negatively tilted that it veers low level wind fields.

It looks like there might be a decent chase day this coming Thursday across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. It is still a long ways out so I'm sure a lot will change. This is also the first time I've looked at this setup on the GFS, so I have no idea how consistent the GFS has been with the evolution of this trough. Right now instability isn't that great due to somewhat low temperatures, but moisture and wind shear both look really good. It is definitely something to keep an eye on.

According to this mornings' gfs we have a whole lot of nothing to look forward to in the way of severe weather. Over the next 7 days the gfs shows us transitioning to high pressure aloft with a trough over the west coast and then the upper level jet flattens out to a zonal flow pattern with the jet stream over the Canada border area. I haven't looked at the hurricane potential hardly at all, but there doesn't appear to be much to get excited about in that regard either over the next week.
I'm going to stick to working on the website and watching college football. We still have a little ways to go before we get into the fall tornado season, so I guess we'll just have to be patient and hope for the best. We haven't really had a fall tornado season the last couple years so maybe this is our year.

Potential Storms Next Friday

It looks like we could potentially be in for some decent storms next Friday as a closed upper level low drops into the central plains. It is a very goofy nontypical setup, so it's hard to gauge the tornado potential if any, but with good moisture in place and adequate deep layer shear severe weather looks like a good possibility. I only spent like five minutes forecasting and the GFS has been jumping around a lot with this trough, so I will wait until tomorrow's run to get into more detail. Right now it looks like central and southern into southeast Kansas hold the best potential as far as the plains are concerned.