Forecast for 7/03/09

I haven't spent a whole lot of time on this , but I think I have my initial target picked out and that would be in the neighborhood of Hebron Nebraska. I go back a long ways with Hebron and have very fond memories of the place. The is where I went when I got the Hallam storm, I went there when I got the Beatrice tornado, I went there when I got whatever that tornado was in central Nebraska was last year where everybody was split by the river. I'm sure there are a couple unsuccessful chases where I held up there too, but just the name of it makes me feel warm and cozy. In reality for a good target I prefer Beatrice just because it is a real city with people and gas stations.
To chase or not to chase, that is the question. I'm not working, but I've also turned off my XM and sent my aircard with my parents to the lake so I'll be rolling old school with the weather radio and use my blackberry to get a little radar. As long as I get up there early enough for a good wifi spot I think I'll be in good shape. That is what I used to so and it worked out OK. It was a little tougher, so I may be rusty, but I can get it done I think.

That is all based on the idea that I am going. The directional shear is great, speed shear isn't too bad either, and when combined you deep layer shear is more than adequate for supercells. The CAPE looked like crap on the maps you'd pull on rap, but then when you check forecast soundings the NAM shows 3000j/kg, which is good enough to ge tthe job done. The LCL's are up there pretty high, but I've seen higher LCL's produce and they drop off quickly as storms move north and east away from the thermal tounge.

Now I have a few concerns. One is that I do think storms will fire, but they should go first west of Hebron a ways where the low level wind field wraps in to what appears to be a surface low and that additional convergence should break the cap first. Maybe then storm will continue to fire down along the warm front (which seems to be what the NAM is showing), but the NAM is usually convection happy. Regardless, one way or another we'll get a storm. If storms do go along the front convective evolution is my second concern. Will there be adequate spacing to allow for storms to progress and grow unimpeded by its neigbor. If so and storms realize upper 60 dewpoints and backed lowlevel winds that are being forecast I think a couple tornadoes and a good possibility. In fact it looks good enough to(was going to swear there, but I know this is a family joint) to get me off the computer and out the door. I have a lits a mile long of thing that need to be done tomorrow though so I'm almost hoping something goes wrong with this setup so I can stay here and get everything done before the weekend. One other thing I forgot to mention was that the forecast sounding either at Hebron or some place near it had a surface inverions by 7pm. I don't know what in the hell that is all about. I guess it could be convective feedback or just somr sort of a mistake because surely any storms would be surface based.

I will update again in the morning.