Sunday, August 16, 2009

Tropical Storm Bill

I'm a little late getting a post up, but Bill and Ana continue to move WNW across the Atlantic. Ana is forecast to move down a Peurto Rico to Cuba line before emerging over the gulf. The track could obviously swing one way or another. Just the other day Ana was forecast to hit Florida on a more northerly track, so who knows what will happen. It doesn't look like Ana will become very strong within 120 hours if it does take this track. I'm sure land interaction would cause some significant problems if this current track does in fact verify. Once Ana enters the gulf (assuming it does) west of Cuba I don't know what will happen. I need to work on my forecasting to get any idea of what to expect in that time frame.
Bill on the other hand looks like it will become a major hurricane within the next 120 hours, but the models have it swinging north over the atlantic where hurricanes die. I hope that's not the case, but it is looking more and more likely that it will be.
Behind Bill there was a wave over Africa that looked promising a day or two ago, but I haven't forecasted since then. I will be looking at that today and see what it looks like. I will probably post later today on that and any chance of a US landfalling Ana.
I'm not good at hurricane forecasting btw. In fact I kind of suck at it, so don't listen to much of what I say. I don't put a lot of time and effort into my forecasting like I do with tornadoes. I don't think it's really neccessary since it's not hard to put yourself in front of a hurricane lol. There's not much skill involved. The only skill in hurricane chasing is knowing what to take, how to be prepared and knowing how to get through it safely. That is a lot tougher than you might think, but it's pretty easy if you take it seriously and plan ahead. Enough rambling. I will post again later.

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