Saturday, September 26, 2009

The 00Z run of the GFS doesn't look so pretty. The speed shear still looks really good, but the directional shear isn't so great. 850mb winds are veering real bad which is damning for tornado potential (although I still think you'd get some tornadoes with this setup) and with strong wind speeds (and poor directional shear) storm motions would be very fast. Hopefully the gfs will trend more back towards the 12Z where the trough isn't so negatively tilted that it veers low level wind fields.

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