Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Well I'm not chasing tomorrow, but I would if LCL heights were a little lower over northwest Kansas and I was sure the cap would break. They very well may get a tornado or two tomorrow. The wind shear is really good. As mentioned before LCL heights are a bit high and the cap may hold until after dark, which is usually a problem with the day before the day chases. The best area for tornadoes will be over northwest Kansas. I would target the dryline right along I70 and get on any storm firing in that area.

Thursday looks like a good severe weather outbreak, but I am questioning the tornado potential. It is rare to get a good tornado on days when there is poor directional shear and that will be the case on Thursday. The speed shear is pretty good and this combined with CAPE around 1000J/kg will create an environment favorable for severe storms. The tornado potential will be seriously inhibited by veering low level winds. Surface winds are slightly more backed over parts of Oklahoma and as a result it will have the best tornado potential on Thursday. I would target any storm firing just a little bit north of Oklahoma City. I think any storm tracking over the area northeast of OKC has the best shot of putting down a tornado. LCL heights will be pretty low, so I think there is a reasonable chance of a couple tornadoes. I don't think it will be anything major, but anything can happen when you get these days with strong speed shear and poor directional shear. Occasionally they do produce decent tornadoes so I will probably be out chasing. I'm kind of repeating myself here, but again I don't think it is that good of a tornado day. My best guess is you'll get a couple tornado warned storms that may be able to produce a couple weak tornadoes and the best area for this will be the northeast quadrant of Oklahoma.

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